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''' '' THE MANKIND
TAN '' '''
ON THE WORLD STUDENTS SOCIETY : Bright, knowledgeable, informed and great Students peeping into the future, need to imagine entire regions where everyone is 70 years or even older.
Imagine a gig economy for your children and future generation of students that is filled with grandparents and Super Bowl ads promoting procreation.
Welcome All, to The World Students Society -for every subject in the world.
PROFOUND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ARE occurring in many parts of the world that would have a number of unexpected consequences.
Demographers now predict that by the latter part of the 21st century - the global population will enter a period of sustained decline for the time in history. According to one analysis : ' The strain of longer lives and low fertility, leading to fewer workers and more retirees, threatened to upend societies and how they are organised - around the notion that surplus of young people will drive economies and help pay for the old.
It may also require a recapitalisation of family and nation. Imagine entire regions where everyone is 70 years or older. Imagine governments laying out huge bonuses for immigrants and mothers with lots of children. Imagine a gig economy filled with grandparents and Super Bowl ads promoting procreation.''
The 20th century presented a very different challenge. The global population saw its greatest increase in known history in known history, from a 1.6 billion in 1900 to 8 billion in 2000 as life expectancies increased and infant mortality rates declined.
In some countries about - representing about a third of the population - those growth dynamics are still at play. By the end of the 21st century Nigeria could surpass China in terms of the size of its population.
Even in countries long associated with rapid population growth, such as India and Mexico, birthrates are falling towards or are already below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.
The youth are needed to lend a push to the economy by innovating and taking more risks than older people. Immigration can and does help. For reasons of preserving cultural homogeneity, nations in Europe have been inclined to accommodate the growing age-gap.
They have been reluctant to bring in young people by admitting immigrants from the nations where the population was young. Africa - parts of which Europe has colonised and basically plundered - was the most obvious source of immigration.
However, Europe resisted this for a while until the German government headed by Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted more than a million Syrians who were fleeing the civil war in their country.
Their arrival has already significantly affected the German demographic situation, its economy, and politics.
The trend is continuing. According to an international team of scientists that published its findings in the highly respected British journal, The Lancet, 183 countries and territories - out of 195 - will have fertility rates below the replacement level by 2100.
The Lancet demographic model shows an especially sharp decline for China with its population expected to fall from 1.41 billion in 2020 to about 730 million in 2100.
In about four decades, China's population could decline by almost one-half its present size. If that does occur, the population pyramid would get inverted. Instead of a base of young workers supporting a narrower band of retirees, China would have as many 85-year-olds as 18-years-olds.
Some newly developed countries such as South Korea had tried a combination of incentives to persuade parents to have more children. The government spent more than $180 billion over the past 15 years, encouraging women to have more children but achieved few positive results.
The number of 18-year-olds has fallen from 900,000 to 500,000 in 2020 and the decline is continuing. The South Korean experience has been repeated in a number of European countries, in particular in Italy.
In a speech earlier in May at a conference of the developing demographic situation in Italy, Pope Francis said, '' The demographic winter was still cold and dark.''
International migration is one solution if the countries with rapidly declining populations are able to adjust to the challenges posed by a large number of foreigners moving in from different cultures and different skin colours.
This will happen with the movement of people from the countries that have surplus labour to those that have serious labour shortages. Pakistan belongs to the first category of nations: the Middle East, Europe, North America and China belong to the second.
With the exception of China, Pakistanis have moved to countries where workers are needed. Oil exporting countries of the Middle East need workers of all kinds of skills : those that can provide physical labour to those who are highly skilled.
Europe has rapidly aging populations. As revealed by the most recent population census conducted in 2020, the United States has also joined the countries with downward pointing demographic trends.
The Honor and Serving of the Latest Global Operational Research on Demographics, Future and Planning, continues. The World Students Society thanks author Shahid Javed Burki, formerly the Vice President of the World Bank.
With respectful dedication to Leaders, Grandparents, Parents, Students, Professors and Teachers of the world. See Ya all prepare and register for Great Global Elections on The World Students Society : wssciw.blogspot.com and Twitter - !E-WOW! - The Ecosystem 2011.
Good Night and God Bless
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