Satellite Killers: What a War in Space Might Look Like

The satellites that orbit Earth have remained largely untouched in modern conflict. But in the 21st Century, space may no longer be a safe haven.

Around 03:00 on 24 February 2022, thousands of satellite modems across Ukraine and Central Europe went offline. A few hours later, Russia's invasion of Ukraine began.

"The first strike of the Russia-Ukraine war was not the tanks rolling into Ukraine, but a cyberattack against a commercial satellite system, which was later attributed to the Russian state," says Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in the US. "Why would they do that? They wanted to degrade the Ukrainian military and government's ability to communicate."

In modern warfare, the first shot may involve not a rifle or a missile, but a line of malicious code aimed at satellites in orbit on Earth.

During the Cold War, the US and Russia faced off against each other on land, in the air, under the sea and – also, largely unnoticed – in space. But now tensions are growing again in orbit, and this time, in the public eye. The stakes are high; a $626bn (£479bn) space economy  could be at risk.

In early February, it was revealed that two Russian satellites have likely intercepted the communications of at least a dozen European ones since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Such interceptions may have allowed Russian intelligence services to read the sensitive data they transmit, or hypothetically, even to take control of the satellites.

Over the last few years Earth-based telescopes and orbital cameras have spotted two Russian satellites, Luch-1 and Luch-2, making a number of suspicious manoeuvres in orbit. In particular, they have been seen making close approaches to Europe's most important, if elderly, geostationary satellites. These include Intelsat 39, which orbits high enough above the Earth that it appears to be stationary above a single point on the Earth's surface. Such a lofty perch makes them ideal platforms for communication, navigation and military purposes. And a prized potential target for a would-be adversary.

Western countries are having to make plans to thwart such attacks if conflict with another power like Russia takes place.

"When one satellite is coming really close to another in space, it's a game of who's going to do the first manoeuvre, and then how the other satellite reacts to that," says Norbert Pouzin, senior orbital analyst at Aldoria, a French satellite tracking company

This dance has been compared to dogfights – aerial battles between fighter planes. Except they take place in space.

Nukes in space

In 2022 Russia launched Cosmos 2553 into space weeks before the invasion of Ukraine. Two years later the United States announced that the satellite could be part of a Russian programme to develop a space-based nuclear weapon. This bomb could, it's believed, be used to destroy entire satellite networks, such as SpaceX's vast Starlink system, which has supported Ukraine's response to Russia's invasion. Russia has denied this.

The idea of nuclear weapons in space is not as far-fetched as it may sound. In 1962, the United States exploded a nuclear bomb in orbit to see if it would cause an electromagnetic pulse (EMP). These pulses can disable electronics, disrupt radio communications and create artificial radiation belts to neutralise satellites. The test, known as Starfish Prime, did cause an EMP – and one that was much larger than expected, causing several satellites to fail in the days and months after the explosion.

- Author: Mark Piesing, BBC

Read more...