STRONG -EL NINO- STRUTS *. : SHAPING GLOBAL WARMING

STRONG EL Nino may be coming, with unpredictable effects. Global warming is expected to disrupt usual patterns of the weather phenomenon.

Forecasters say a powerful L Nino weather pattern could form later this year, with the chance of becoming one of the strongest in three decades.

The winds above the Pacific are shifting, the ocean is releasing stored-up heat, and a cascade of effects on rain, droughts and wildfires could be on its way.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says there's a roughly 60 percent chance of an EL Nino developing between May and July.

That's a major reason scientists now say next year could surpass 2024 as the planet's warmest year since modern records began in the mid-19th century.

EL Nino and La Nina are the opposite phases of a natural climate cycle in the Pacific. They appear at  irregular intervals, and no two events are ever the same.

But Earth's steady warming is also influencing the way these episodes shape the weather around the globe.

'' We are now in a different base-line climate, '' said Clara Deser, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

That means past EL Nino's don't necessarily tell us how the EL Ninos of the future will look, '' Dr. Deser said.

The World Students Society thanks Raymond Zhong.