Headline, May 15 2026/ MARKETS : ''' WARS' ECONOMICS WARE '''

MARKETS : 

''' WARS' ECONOMICS WARE '''

THE WAR IN THE PERSIAN GULF has already been bad for the markets and the global economy. All the Students on The World Students Society absolutely think so. ! There's no question about that. !

But from a purely financial standpoint, another issue looms. By the time all the fighting ends - whenever it ends - how big will its impact be?  The best anyone can do at this stage is make educated guesses.

President Trump's from-the-gut decision making, combined with Iran's resilient ability to close shipping lanes and wreck damage on Gulf energy production, means that the range of possibilities for this war is staggeringly broad.

New forecasts come out continuously. Most scenarios go from bad to very bad - and much worse. It's difficult to rule anything out.

The markets so far have embraced the merely bad predictions - which, under the current circumstances, amount to a positive outlook.

Over the past month, Mr. Trump's intermittent comments suggesting the war was almost over have set off rallies in the markets, only to be followed by setbacks.

In one past speech from the White House, Mr. Trump said, '' Over the next two to three weeks, we're going to bring them back to the Stone Ages : where they belong. In the meantime, discussions are ongoing.''

Energy prices are painfully high, and stocks and bonds are down since the war's start.

Even after a late rally, the S&P 500 was down 7.3 percent for the first quarter of the year, and it dropped almost 8 percent in the month since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb 8. These moves have stung.

The markets sank after the president's speech. Still, they would be in much worse shape, if a consensus of the investors believed the war would wreak profound, long-term harm on the global economy.

Because oil, natural gas and fertilizers are such important ingredients for so many things in daily life, the cuts in supply that have occurred so far are already dangerous.

A protracted war would be far more perilous and could even set off a global recession.

The situation is much worse now in countries without these resources, particularly in Asia, like Pakistan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Sri Lanka, where the shortfall in energy from the Gulf is felt acutely.

And most of Europe faces greater energy problems than the United States does, with the oil shock set off by Russia's war in Ukraine still hurting the continental economy and current shortages worsening the situation considerably.

EDUCATED GUESSES : Even if President Trump decides that the United States really has done enough fighting, the energy shock set off by the war couldn't be resolved by a single person or nation. Iran certainly has a say in the matter.

It has proved that it can throttle the strait, and there are other important energy choke points, too.

For example, the Houthis, an Iranian backed-militia in Yemen, have threatened to block shipping lanes in the Red Sea, which they have attacked before.

And significant damage to production capacity in the Middle East has already been done. It wouldn't take much to keep energy prices high - or to send them higher.

Even so, most oil producers and consumers desperately want the conflict to end soon. Perhaps simply because this outcome seems so sensible, the consensus wisdom is that it will happen.

And remember that some outcomes would be particularly painful, especially for vulnerable regions, with the worst off being energy-importing countriës in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

'' Low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity, '' the I.M.F. said.

The Honour and Serving of the Latest Global Operational Research on Wars, World and Economic Forces continues. The World Students Society thanks Jeff Soomer.

With most respectful dedication to the Leaders of the world, and then Students, Professors and Teachers.

See You all prepare for the Great '' Constitutional Democratic Conventions '' on !WOW! - the exclusive and eternal ownership of every student in the world : wssciw.blogspot.com and Twitter X !E-WOW! - The Ecosystem 2011 :

Good Night and God Bless

SAM Daily Times - The Voice Of The Voiceless