Headline, April 24 2025/ ''' GAME CHANGER GARB '''

''' GAME CHANGER

 GARB '''

FOR STUDENTS OF THE ENTIRE WORLD : An honour, dignity, fun and eternal income and profits, and ownership from a '' great idea.'' ! Welcome, to The World Students Society ! !WOW! for every subject in the world.

RISING UNEMPLOYMENT AMONG young college graduates? The result of high interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty. Dire predictions of widespread job losses?  

A failure to understand the lessons of past technological revolutions. Even the layoffs that companies themselves blamed on artificial intelligence were often chalked up to '' A.I. washing '' from executives looking for something to blame other than their own mismanagement.

Recently, however, the message from economists has undergone a subtle change. Most still do not see much evidence that A.I. is disrupting the job market. But they are starting to take seriously the possibility that it could someday soon.

If it does, they are worried that policymakers are not ready to respond deep enough and far enough.

'' I don't think A.I. has hit the labor market yet, and I don't think it has radically changed corporate productivity yet, either, but I think it's coming,'' said Daniel Rock, a University of Pennsylvania  economist who has studied the economic impact of artificial intelligence.

In a working paper published some weeks ago, a team of researchers surveyed economists about their outlook over the next five-and-25 years. Most expect the economy to grow a bit more quickly as A.I. improves, but not to diverge substantially from historical patterns.

If the technology improves rapidly - a possibility they consider unlikely but plausible - they envision a far more drastic scenario, with faster growth but also greater inequality and the disappearance of millions of jobs.

'' Economists are certainly taking A.I. seriously,'' said Ezra Karger, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago who was one of the study's authors.

Economists' expectations for the future looked relatively similar to those of A.I. industry insiders, who were also surveyed for the study. Both groups agree the future is uncertain :

A.I. could either wipe out whole categories of jobs or cause few job losses. Its effect could be concentrated among entry-level white-collar workers or spread to more experienced workers and those in blue-collar jobs.

The changes could upend the economy within years or take decades.

Given the potential scale of the disruption, economists say it is time to start considering the policies that could help workers displaced or otherwise harmed by the changing economy - something that societies often failed to accomplish in past technological transitions.

'' There's enough conversation around this that we certainly should, as a country, be talking about what sorts of policies make sense in a world where the employment and careers work now changes a lot in the next two to five years,'' said Robert Seamans, an economist at New York University.

A PARADIGM SHIFT : When OpenAI released ChatGPT to the public in November 2022, Alex Imas, an economist at the University of Chicago, did not necessarily see it as an economic game changer, he said.

The technology was powerful but limited, prone to mistakes and incapable of producing work with the quality and consistency necessary for most professional applications.

'' I knew it was important, but I was definitely on the more skeptical side when it first came out,''  Mr. Imas recalled.

For Mr. Imas, the real shift came in late 2024, when OpenAI released a model capable of '' reasoning,'' meaning it could work through a question step by step before producing an answer. That ability greatly expanded the type of problems the model could tackle, and made it more reliable at solving them.

'' It was just a paradigm shift for me,'' Mr. Imas said. '' And then I started thinking, ' This is potentially an industrial revolution-scale event, if not more.' ''

The Honour and Serving of the Latest Global Operational Research on Jobs, Careers, Employment and the Future continues. The World Students Society thanks Ben Casselman.

With most respectful dedication to Leaders, Scientists, the Global Founder Framers of !WOW! - and then Students, Professors and Teachers of the world.

See You all prepare for the great '' Constitutional Democratic Convention '' on : wssciw.blogspot.com and Twitter X !E-WOW! - The Ecosystem 2011 :

Good Night and God Bless

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