One Point Match

'All you have to do is win five or six points': Your chances of beating the world's top tennis stars in a new tournament.

An unusual tennis competition that pits amateurs against professionals in one-point matches is launching at the Australian Open. But could an unknown player really take down one of the world's best?

It would be a sporting upset like no other – an unknown amateur beating the world's greatest tennis players to a million-dollar prize.

Yet this is the opportunity being dangled at this year's Australian Open tennis Grand Slam this month. Running in parallel to the usual tournament will be the One Point Slam, where each "match" hinges on just a single point played on court (as opposed to the usual matches composed of sets and games). And the competition is open to amateurs as well as professional players.

To take home the A$1 million (£490,000/$672,000) prize fund, all you'd have to do is win five or six points. So how likely is it that an unknown amateur can defeat the world's top tennis players to clinch the title? Let's look at the maths.

There will be 48 competitors in total – 24 professional players alongside eight amateur winners of earlier state championship rounds played across Australia in 2025. There will also be eight players (amateurs or professionals) who will pass through qualifying rounds in the opening week and eight wildcards – celebrities and invited personalities. Among the pros lined up to take part are the men's world number one and two, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, as well as Australian fan-favourite Nick Kyrgios. Iga Swaitek and Coco Gauff, the women's world number two and three, are also due to take part. So not much of a challenge there then…

But the single point format clearly makes the chance of an upset – of an objectively worse player beating an objectively better player – more likely.

A single point provides less opportunity for the better player to assert their dominance and more chances for a simple mistake or blind luck to come into play. The organisers are gambling that this is exactly what the people watching the tournament will want to see.

- Author: Kit Yates, BBC