The ' merry-go-round ' of food insecurity :

Growing up in Ethiopia during the 1980s, Sara Menker was exposed to the extremes of privilege and poverty. 

Her parents were part of the country's middle class, and she attended an excellent private school in the capital city of Addis Ababa, but many of her compatriots suffered during periods of famine and civil unrest.

After meeting an admissions officer from Mount Holyoke College in Massachusetts when she was in high school, Ms. Menker wound up attending Mount Holyoke, a small liberal arts school for women.

From there she joined Morgan Stanley in New York, where she began trading commodities.

But she never stopped thinking about food insecurity. While on Wall Street, Ms. Menker became captivated by the global food system and its inefficiencies. In 2014, she quit and founded Gro Intelligence, which uses artificial intelligence to forecast agriculture trends.

Gro, which is private, has raised more than $125 million in funding and has offices in New York, Singapore and Nairobi, Kenya.

Drawing from thousands of data sources, the company predicts economic outcomes, such as where soybean prices are headed, how climate change will affect arable land and what's going on with Brazil's coffee crop.

Customers include HSBC, Tyson Foods and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. And Ms. Menker, who in 2017 delivered a TED Talk predicting a global food crisis, is still fretting about feeding the world.

.- CAN you tell me about your childhood, growing up in Ethiopia?

I grew up in Addis in the '80s. It was a sort of time when Ethiopia was in the news. There was a famine and poverty and all of those things. It was a very different time than it is now, but I feel like it shaped a lot of who I am today.

.- Even if you didn't experience the famine personally, you must have been deeply aware of it and affected by it.

A thousand percent. First of all, you have to remember we come from massive families. My mom has 24 siblings. And you grow up very much aware of it.

I grew up in a country where fuel was rationed, where food, sugar toilet paper was rationed no matter who you are. It didn't matter if you lived in Addis or outside of Addis.

When toilet paper shortages happened during Covid and and everybody was running to stock up, I was like, ''I don't know why you're stocking up. I have like 80 rolls of toilet paper.''

People were like, ''Why do you have 80 rolls of toilet paper?'' And I was like, ''Is that not how one lives in life? In fear that things might run out?'' But it is how we were raised, very much aware that you can't take anything for granted, that anything can disappear. We had neighbors that disappeared.

When you get bored at Morgan Stanley, did you know exactly what you wanted to do?

Yeah, Gro came from the financial crisis. The stock prices of all the banks were about to go to zero, and I had a colleague who literally thought the world was coming to an end. He thought the best hedge to make was buying as much gold as possible.

All day long, he'd be buying bars of gold, gold coins, gold ETFs. He also bought a lot of guns. And I'm just like, ''What are you doing, dude?'' I was just viscerally angry at him for thinking that Morgan Stanley's stock prices going to zero was the end of the world.

I was like, ''First of all, I know what the end of the world looks like. This aint it. And second of all, how are you going to feel when you trade a bar of gold for a sack of potatoes?''

So despite him, I looked at buying a little bit of agricultural land, thinking it was actually a good hedge to inflation to have piece of land where I can grow my own food. And that made me realize how messed up the agricultural systems were around the world, and how very little of it made any economic sense.

I didn't end up investing in the land, but I ended up investing tons and tons of time learning everything I could about agriculture, and I just completely got obsessed.

How is it that we-we been talking about food security for decades, and yet every time I ask a question I'm only getting more questions? Everytime I seek an answer and I'm trying to find the data, I can't find what I need? I became really attached to that problem. And I thought :

''What can I do for Africa?'' So when I quit, it was basically with this very loosey-goosey idea around, '' I'm going to start a company and it's going to do something around data and agriculture.

.- Do you still believe that we are facing a global food crisis?

If you look at inflationary pressures around the world today and the amount of food inflation that we're living through, it's astonishing.

Look at how much food prices are up year on year, even in the U.S., and the U.S. is blessed to be literally self-sufficient in every sense of the word when it comes to food.

So when you think about how that translates in a world where currencies are getting decimated because of Covid, and the economic realities that exist, our food systems are just strained. And the reason that you have inflation  is actually because you're facing an unprecedented number of supply and demand shocks happening at the same time.

If you think of the vegetable oil market and Canada's drought in the last year, or you like the price of oats, it's up like 70 percent year on year, because most production is in Canada.

There's a structural inability of the markets to adjust to this type of thing happening, and those weaknesses still exist, and demand is growing faster than we thought on per capita basis.

Supply tries to keep up, but it's sort of just this merry-go-round that we're living in. We haven't fixed our systems to deal with that, and that's what keeps me at night.

.- Do you think there are too many people on Earth? Are you a little Malthusian in the way you think about all this? Or can planet Earth sustain nine billion humans.

We can sustain it. There are two places where we get growth from. One is through yields : grow more on the same amount of land.

Second is to expand the area, which is not what we want right now, because most of that expansion of area is basically deforestation.

That is why there is tension between economic growth and ecological preservation.

So the question you ask is, '' How do I grow production? How do I grow yield?''

.- If we drastically reduced the amount of meat that's consumed, would that solve some of our problems?

It's not a silver bullet. It's baby steps. And we should take all the baby steps we want to take. But I don't think we should make false promises. And if you look at per capita meat consumption even in the U.S. in the last ten years, it's gone up. It hasn't gone down. I mean, it's human nature.

The World Students Society thanks author David Gelles.


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