Headline Feb 19, 2018/ ''' *TRADES* TO TROUNCE '''


A TRADE WAR CHINA : IS IT GOING TO BE TOUGHER than the Japanese edition?

China, matches up competitively - now and in the future - with nearly every American made product. Go to Wal-Mart and take a look. And it's not just Christmas ornament manufacturers who've been harmed -

High end industries and products long dominated by the United States are all being challenged.

There's another big difference.

In response to US political pressure -some unfair- Japan bit its tongue and moved Toyota, Nissan and Honda to America, effectively granting Detroit a reprieve.

The PRC is more likely to offer to buy a weakened GM and Ford -and when turned down, complain of discrimination and look for opportunities to exact revenge.

Worldwide influence : Although Japanese industry and government operated worldwide, the country had nowhere near the influence -

China has accumulated in recent years. The PRC has used its money will.

China may over-lend on onerous terms and then put the squeeze on. And the Belt and Road may have questionable long-term prospects -but it is creating-

A real presence and influence in far-flung parts of the world, unlike anything Japan had going.

Tellingly, fear of Chinese economic retaliation in making many countries reluctant to side with the  US in trade war - even if America is an Ally or a security guarantor.

In the 1980s everyone went after Japan with abandon.

Disregard for the rules : Despite contentious US-Japan trade negotiations, Tokyo understood  international rules and mostly lived up to its promises.

Meanwhile, China considers Trade Agreements as largely voluntary and discriminates against foreign companies, while intellectual property theft and industrial espionage seem like a moral imperative.

It's hard to negotiate with this kind of adversary.

The US is better positioned than in the 1980s: Ironically, though, the US is better equipped to handle  Chinese economic competition than it was to deal with Japan's.

The American economy is stronger these days compared to its battered state in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

And more of the US business community supports economic pressure on the PRC - having finally realized that the China market is a rigged casino.

Also, nothing made in China can't be made elsewhere.

Global supply chains are always shifting. It's perhaps inconvenient and costlier, but they were not chiseled in stone in Mount Sinai.

China does hold a lot of US debt, as did Japan. But that's less of a advantage than it seems - provided the US government someday soon put its financial house in order.

Lobbying power : When a US administration starts to apply economic pressure, the target country's lobbyists try to stop it.

Chinese lobbying interests are probably awash.

During Japan's heyday, Americans lined up to take Japanese cash - just as they today where Chinese money is concerned.

But the PRC is increasingly seen as an existential threat to US global power in a way Japan was not. That's a hard thing for lobbyists to overcome.

Finally, the PRC is vulnerable in unique ways.

Its banking system, with its immense bad loan burden, is shakier than Japanese banks were. And not even the Chinese Communist Party itself believes the country's 6.5%  growth figures.

THERE are also daunting and costly social issues of poverty, an aging society, environmental problems, lack of an honest legal system and secure property rights and -

Corruption that would embarrass Chiang Kai Shek's KMT.

Moreover, just about every person who can tries to move their money out of China.

The PRC also has a penchant for cutting off its nose to spite its face - out of resentment or to teach someone a lesson - over Taiwan, say, or a South China Sea oil rig.

And Chinese economic rapacity invariably provokes a negative reaction - in both first - and third world countries.

The Japanese were not shy about going after market share - but generally knew when to say 'when'.

Ultimately, the Trump administration is right take on the PRC on the trade front. But this will be much harder than it was with Japan.

And, for that America has itself to blame.

With respectful dedication to the Leaders, Students, Professors and Teachers of the world. See Ya all on !WOW! -the World Students Society and Twitter-!E-WOW! -the Ecosystem 2011:

''' World & !WOW! '''

Good Night and God Bless

SAM Daily Times - the Voice of the Voiceless


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