GCSE results 'set to stall' as exams are toughened up

GCSE pass rates are set to plateau for the first time in the exam’s 25-year history following a toughening up of the grading system, it was claimed today.

Experts warned that the number of pupils awarded good marks will fail to rise – and could even drop in some subjects – when grades are released next week.

It comes just 24 hours after the publication of A-level results which saw the proportion of A grades fall for the first time since the early 90s.

Ofqual, the qualifications regulator, has already told examination boards to crack down on GCSE “grade inflation” and ordered them to justify any major shift in grades compared with previous years.

It is also the first year that pupils will sit rigorous new science GCSE papers following warnings from the regulator that previous exams were not stretching enough.

In a further change, it is also thought that more pupils will enter tests in traditional subjects such as foreign languages, separate sciences, history and geography. This follows the introduction of the English Baccalaureate – a new school leaving certificate rewarding pupils with good grades in academic disciplines.

But any major fall in GCSEs could prove hugely damaging for schools following the imposition of rigorous floor targets by the Government.

Ministers are effectively threatening to close or take over any state school that fails to ensure at least 35 per cent of pupils gain five good passes.

Prof Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said: “In many ways, GCSE results are a lot more important for schools than A-levels because they have been given detailed floor targets based on the number of pupils gaining A* to Cs.

“Schools’ futures may be at stake if they don’t meet the targets so you can imagine the amount of extra effort that will be going in. But even with this incentive, I’m sure we won’t see the sort of increases in grades that we’ve witnessed every year since GCSEs came into being in 1988.”

Almost 700,000 pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive their GCSE results next Thursday.

Last summer, some 23.2 per cent of GCSEs were graded at least an A, with 7.8 per cent registering elite A* grades. Almost seven-in-10 exam papers were given A* to C grades.

Figures show that A grades have increased each year since 1988, with the proportion almost tripling over the 25-year period.

But it is believed that a crackdown on grade inflation combined with a shift towards more rigorous academic subjects may lead to top-end scores stalling for the first time this year.

The Government has threatened to pull failing schools out of local authority control and turn them into independent academies under new leadership. Struggling academies could undergo a change of sponsor.

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